September 2024 GTA Housing Market Update
While the GTA housing market stats saw a decline across the board for the month of August, September stats are showing the opposite. For the month of September, the number of sales, the average sale price, and the number of new listings have all increased. In this blog, I'll break down these numbers and explore their implications for buyers, sellers, and investors and offer some insight into what this means for the market moving forward.
Number of Sales:
Let’s start by taking a look at the number of sales. In September, sales in the GTA saw a slight increase of 0.4% compared to the previous month. Now, you might be thinking, ‘That’s hardly a significant jump,’ and you’re right. But the real question is: What does this small shift actually tell us?
A small increase in sales like this usually means that demand is steady. It’s an indicator that while interest rates or other market factors haven’t caused a huge surge in activity, buyers are still out there. They’re watching the market closely, waiting for the right opportunities. I’ve said this before, and it still holds true: now remains a good time for qualified buyers to enter the market. There are a lot off homes to choose from, less competition, and more room for negotiation. However, once further rate cuts happen and more buyers jump off the sidelines, competition will increase—and so will prices. So, this is definitely something buyers might want to keep in mind. The next interest rate announcement is set for October 23rd. It has been predicted that this time we will see a rate cut of .50 and then another .50 in December. If this does in fact happen, you we definitely see an up peek in sales in the new year.
Average Sale Price:
Now let’s talk about the average sale price. The average sale price for all home types in the GTA, has gone up by 3% and is now sitting at just over $1.1 million. This price increase tells us a few important things. Although sales activity has seen only a slight increase, home prices are still rising at a gradual pace. This indicates that prices are likely to continue to climb as affordability improves for more buyers. TRREB President Jennifer Pearce stated, 'With every rate cut, more households in the GTA will be able to invest in homeownership, including first-time buyers.' So, for those considering buying, waiting could mean facing higher prices in the future—something to keep in mind. Another factor that could be contributing to the slight increase in the average sale price is seller strategy. Some sellers are listing their homes at lower price points to attract more buyers, which in turn drives up competition. This often results in homes selling for a higher price, which is closer to the seller’s target.
For those of you that want a breakdown of the average sale price across the different cities within the GTA, take a look at this chart. As you can see, Durham region remains the most affordable at this time. Whereas, Stouffville and Richmond Hill remain the most expensive.
New Listings:
Finally, let's talk about new listings. In September, new listings in the GTA increased by 44% compared to the previous month. Many of you may be asking why homeowners are putting their home up for sale when so many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines. Well, there are a couple factors that explain why were seeing an increase in listings. First, listings are accumulating due to a slowdown in buying activity. It’s not that a huge number of new listings are suddenly flooding the market; rather, the existing ones are piling up because fewer buyers are making moves. Second, it’s typical to see an uptick in listings in September, as homeowners return to normal routines after the summer and want to list their properties ahead of the winter holiday season, because that is a time when sales activity tends to slow down again.
In addition to theses factors, it is important to keep in mind that, as more buyers become motivated to enter the market following additional rate cuts, we will likely see the pace of new listings taper off, because the buyer-to-listing ratio will be more balanced out. For buyers, as I mentioned earlier, this influx of homes currently on the market, gives you more to choose from and greater negotiating power, which is good news all around. For sellers on the other hand, it's crucial to price your home competitively to improve your chances of a quicker sale
So, the overall takeaway from this September 2024 market report, is that the GTA real estate market is remaining pretty resilient, despite the current economic conditions. Buyer activity is gradually increasing and is expected to gain momentum as interest rates continue to fall. With national home sales forecasted to rise by 6.6% in 2025, buyers may want to consider entering the market sooner than later, in order to take advantage of current opportunities. Sellers are encouraged to stay patient, because as we move into the next coming months, sellers will likely benefit from the predicted growth in buyer demand.
I hope this GTA Market Update for September 2024 was helpful. As always, if you have any questions or comments feel free to reach out.
Sonia Ramgobin
Realtor - Re/Max Royal Properties
905-239-4706
sonia@soniaramgobin.ca
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